Edge of the acceptable range — Headlines are buzzing on inflation turning down and central banks being done, but I think the moves we’ve seen are now stretching the narratives too far — the main theme of my notes today. GS Vickie Chang comments also speaks of the similar risks that I’m seeing as well…

Just close the f(OMO) door — Icymi, highlight of the week def has to be Powell, who is indeed… I’ve also started a weekly Substack with my good friend and colleague where we share a small number of charts that caught our eye and we find insightful in shaping our short-term views and trade…

A cushioned-landing? — Global equities have put in a momentous bounce — the best week in almost a year which begs to question — how far can it run? This week I take a look at the technical structure of equity markets with their respective forward P/E charts to gauge what levels can…

Favourable Treasury Supply Shock? — An extremely packed calendar, but more likely to be the most important of all for markets is the Treasury refunding meeting this week who are to make their Quarterly Refunding Announcement at 8:30am Wednesday. There is some expectation that the Treasury will apportion issuance in favour of T-bills given…

A not so Black Monday — Took a slow and easy start to the week so going straight into the chart run and highlighting/opining on some key points as we go. To start, I don’t think anyone is kidding themselves about how bad the market currently looks and it’s drawing comparisons to 1987 (a.k.a. Black Monday)…

Benji smiling again — USD held key support last week and DXY looks ready for a higher high. Last weekend I entertained the idea that SPX could potentially make new all-time-highs this year. But the CPI data on Thursday put a spanner in the works of that thesis and has made me flip…

SPX to new all-time-highs? — Whilst I maintain my tactically bullish risk stance, this week I consider the possibility of where we could go from here particularly on the growing sense that yields may be plateauing as growth-concerns takes centre-stage with stagflation risks in the rear-view: inflation pressures waning — reacceleration fears has likely abated…

Tactically Bullish — My views have been slowly evolving over the last 2 months and a summary of my prior notes provides a good picture of where I’m currently at: 2023.07.24 Market ‘vulnerability’ to be tested — noted increasing risk of market getting wrong-footed on the disinflation and strong growth narrative 2023.07.31 Bullish…

Bearish but Nimble — I’ve been picking up some low ones in US equities on the idea that moves have been quite extended: yields showing tentative signs of getting exhausted, Oil rally stalling last week, and USD price action at technical inflection points showing tentative signs of stalling if not pulling back from current…