SPX to 4k? — No change of view so just briefly expanding on last week’s points and the narrative shift-thesis. The US services sector and a resilient labour market has been the big reason for markets to be optimistic about a soft/no-landing, but as highlighted last week — limited capacity of household spending going…

Bad news is Good news, right? — Review of the data Good in the eyes of the Fed, Bad in the eyes of the economy

MonPolVol is here to stay — Noting some main takeaways from the Jackson Hole symposium … Many had been calling for the July hike to be the peak and turning their attention to how soon the cuts could come as inflation and job market data softens, and hints from Fed members of policy being restrictive enough: …

Bond vigilantes and The 5% Canary — Weekend reflections Had a rather tumultuous trading week which I feel that I really shouldn’t have so it got me thinking about how it all went wrong after starting the week so confidently that my trades could continue to run well. I eventually concluded that I had an issue with removing anchoring…

Goldilocks and the 3 Bears — The tale of Goldilocks sneaking into the house of 3 bears and trying to find the right temperature porridge or sized bed seems a suitably good analogy for global macro picture at the moment. Goldilocks… Inflation has been broadly trending down (or leftwards on the chart) while Economic surprises have been…

Ope, there goes gravity… Restrictive for longer US labour market continues to be strong…

Bullish, but Vulnerable. — Despite what my views are, market is still not showing signs of letting up and goldilocks-ish data is yet to offer reason for investors to get worried. He’s been wrong on a lot of these posts but there’s a lot behind the surface of this rally that points…

Market ‘vulnerability’ to be tested — Last week I discussed some key risks stemming from the idea that the market is getting increasingly vulnerable to getting wrong-footed on the ‘broad disinflation thus averting a hard-landing’ narrative: Policy vol risks — rates market turns positioning towards policy peak to easing cycle; and Complaceny risks — stock market…

Complacency risks — Since the beginning of the year, I’ve had the idea of a 2nd reacceleration wave being the one that could bring serious pain to markets and so far, economies remain resilient, labour markets and wage growth remains strong; so the more the market cheers disinflation and gets a boost from…