Taking stock of the Fed and Markets — A slow start catching up with some overdue errands and after one of those “I’m never drinking again” type weekends — words I’m sure many of us have uttered more times than we could count, and yet here we are… More than made up for the previous weekend missed from…

Sidewinder markets — A bizarre week… Had it not been for a high fever that came spontaneously the day before my birthday (July 20), I would have most certainly lost some money given the views I had on the market last week. In fact the fever was so high it’s kept in bed…

Going full bear on Recession and Earnings risks — Recession risks — The June CPI report highlighted inflation pressures with core at +0.7% m/m vs +0.6% in May were extremely broad and likely to trigger a strong response from the FED, or keep them on an aggressive policy path at the least, thus increasing the likelihood of a…

Cautiously bullish… — On theme with previous weeks of reviewing the outlook for US equities: Risk is very very oversold where I discussed that any Recession in the US would likely be a quick and shallow one, Bullish sentiment towards EOQ flows and July seasonals which however was mostly wrong that week as…

Recession fears overblown — It’s not often that a chart deck has me looking at a chart for more than a few seconds but I found JPM’s end of Q2 Guide to Markets to be very thought provoking as it spoke to a lot of the thoughts I’ve been having in recent weeks and…

Bullish sentiment towards EOQ flows and July seasonals — Last week I noted a strong potential for rally as we get some positioning unwind into the month and quarter-end. BofA shows the market being very oversold according to Margin Debt levels:

Risk is very very oversold… — Fed insider reports can be believed — I wasn’t convinced about the Fed delivering the 75bps and was reluctant to believe that it was a certainty as everyone was making it out to be. Well, lesson learned, and I’ll be giving future insider reports much more credit from this experience. …

Let’s get Tactical, Let me hear your Trades talk… — (A pun off the old Oliva Newton-John song) Last week I have been sympathetic to the point that markets have “adequately discounted Fed policy tightening, or thereabouts.” But last week’s data, namely another hot CPI surprise and consumer sentiment sinking to a record low has caused the market to believe…

Recession still likely to be a 2023 story — US equities has seen continuous selling so far year-to-date and to the extent where I’m now of the view that the Market has, for now, adequately discounted Fed policy tightening, or thereabouts. Although the impact of tightening financial conditions is already becoming visible (e.g falling New and Existing Home…