Bearish narratives lacking — Last weekend I talked about taking a cautious view on the market. While I still think that stance should be maintained, markets are seeing decreasing risks of a severe recession, which is a stark contrast to the extremely gloomy sentiment of Q4 last year. A look at the incoming data…

Too much too soon? — Markets have made a strong bounce back across the board, from stocks, bonds to commodities and a weaker dollar. But I think it is time to be cautious again… CNBC and various asset managers are already talking about ‘new all-time-highs’ or ‘back to the highs’ for certain stocks, and…

Strong start to 2023 will have legs — Happy 2023 and what a start it’s been! 2022 has been yet another memorable year in financial markets and it does not look like 2023 will disappoint given the significant dislocations we’ve seen the last 2 years. …

Santa rally vs Year-end volatility — Watched “The Big Short” this holiday weekend which reminded me of the time I graduated as a mature student of Finance and Accounting in August of 2008 and, at a time I was looking to kickstart my career in Finance but without any luck whatsoever. So I went on to…

A smaller and choppier Santa-rally, maybe… — There’s been plenty of chatter of massive rebalancing of 60/40 portfolios into year-end which makes for some very choppy trading conditions. Investor fears are now shifting from inflation to recession, but in the short-term I think the easing in inflation expectations will do much to boost consumer and business confidence…

Can stocks find a footing post-FOMC? — NEWSFLOW MARKETS Dow tumbles 300 points Friday, posts worst week since September (CNBC). Why stock-market investors shouldn’t count on a ‘Santa Claus’ rally this year — “Seasonal tailwinds that have traditionally driven Santa Claus rallies pale in comparison to the plethora of headwinds the equity market currently faces” (MarketWatch). Fed set to…

Year-end Melt-upp — At the core of my views is the idea that I see policy being on autopilot for the next couple of meetings — in other words, unless there are material deviations, I see it unlikely that we see any policy related shocks over that time and bond volatility will continue…

Sentiment check into year-end — Big rebound in risk but hitting some short-term extremes, US resilience is key to keeping broad markets up while Momentum and Seasonality favours a robust performance in December… NEWSFLOWS MARKETS US stocks post weekly gain on hopes ‘central bank storm’ will pass — Dovish minutes from Fed’s November meeting prompt speculation rate…

Another storm on the horizon — Took almost 2 weeks out that concluded with a very memorable trip around Ha Long Bay in Vietnam. A truly magical place where the beauty and serenity of the bay takes hold of your senses to the point that there isn’t a single thought in mind. Nothing but a pure…