Fade the AI-bubble & DC resolution — For almost the whole month of May, I’ve been looking for equities to finally break its tight range to the downside and my PnL has taken a hit as a result of it. USD longs has helped to offset some losses in equities but was not enough to offset my…

NVDA: Notoriously Volatile Dreams Ascend — AI is all the rage at the moment and it comes up in almost every social discussion I’ve had recently. Take the latest conversation I had with a graphic designer and a blockchain company executive this past weekend — the Graphic designer was saying how AI was able to bang…

Bobo wants to play — I’m becoming increasingly convinced that risk assets are ready to shed the bloat —2yr real rate is climbing higher to levels seen before the correction in SPX in Feb-Mar’23 and the momentum in equities has completely faded over the past month. NEWSFLOW MARKETS Wall Street Loads Up on Doom Hedges as Countdown…

Gracklage — I’ve not even heard of a Grackle before Sam Rines had brought it up, but when you look into it, it’s quite the fitting term for something between a Hawk and Dove, and the likely narrative swings we are likely to encounter over the coming months. Fintwit seems…

He bought? Dampeet! — Back to my usual desk from my 5wk trip and must say, it’s refreshing to take a long break from the screens. Markets are showing a lot of confidence that the FED cycle is coming to an end and that US authorities will backstop any liquidity runs on US banks…

Don’t Stop, (Dis)believin’ — Hope you’ve had a good Easter break! Back to Hong Kong from Phuket but had a case of weezy bronchitis since arriving on the weekend. Trades are doing well so presume all is going to plan and not having to do any active position trading. …

Aversion-Reversion to continue? — Another quick one as I’m on travels til late April. Didn’t keep a close eye on markets so a look at the FOMC reaction to start: Green line marks the initial 2pm announcement and we can see the reaction was clearly a dovish one as the fed dialed back on…

The Aversion-Reversion trade… — A late and brief one as I’m tight on time before flying back to Hong Kong. As titled, I begin the week looking at mean reversion moves of recent risk aversion moves, as well as of the thoughts and trading themes outlined in my prior weeks notes Mar-6th Expect volatility…

Cash is not trash — Firstly, there seems to be a tangible fear we are on the cusp of a major policy error after Powell kept the door open to a 50bps hike, a reacceleration of which is likely to induce a hard-landing recession sooner than was thought. …