Cash is not trash — Firstly, there seems to be a tangible fear we are on the cusp of a major policy error after Powell kept the door open to a 50bps hike, a reacceleration of which is likely to induce a hard-landing recession sooner than was thought. …

Expect volatility to bounce back — For what’s been some tough trading conditions of late, and as conflicted as I feel on my bearish views against the price action we’ve seen, technicals are often more important than what you think will or should happen ... So to start of the week, I’m willing to challenge my…

The Dollar Blackhole — Some thoughts on the USD which is beginning to behave like a blackhole where everything else gravitates toward to its untimely end and why I think this is just the beginning of a long road ahead for broad risk. In case you’re not aware, there is…

Notable change in sentiment — FinTwit seemed to have turned bearish as early as late January but it was questionable, to me and a few of my colleagues at least, as we failed to see the triggers that would stifle the momentum in Equities. …

No where to hide but the Dollar — Nothing of particular to note this week, other that retaining the general risk-off bias held over previous weeks. I would add that I think this will be the kind of risk-off where ‘there is no where to hide but in USD’ as it is likely to be induced from the…

A very questionable rally — Something that took me by surprise last week was the very large MOC for the January-month-end on Tuesday, especially ahead of the FOMC decision and NFP that could very well swing the trend in the stock market rally. This got me looking: We saw 2 major bear market rallies last…

Risk rally skating on thin-ice — Starting to lean bearish after what’s been a great start to the year… Thanks to the few I’ve been having discussions with, here are just a few of the many discussion points guiding my change of view: Cost-cutting focus: from what’s becoming more apparent from the early half of…

Bearish narratives lacking — Last weekend I talked about taking a cautious view on the market. While I still think that stance should be maintained, markets are seeing decreasing risks of a severe recession, which is a stark contrast to the extremely gloomy sentiment of Q4 last year. A look at the incoming data…

Too much too soon? — Markets have made a strong bounce back across the board, from stocks, bonds to commodities and a weaker dollar. But I think it is time to be cautious again… CNBC and various asset managers are already talking about ‘new all-time-highs’ or ‘back to the highs’ for certain stocks, and…